OU or UT has represented the Big 12 in every Conference Championship Game since Bob and Mack starting competing. This year both OU and UT have enough questions that one could honestly ask if someone is ready to finally end that their hegemony over the rest of the division. However, questions at the only teams to really challenge both schools (Tech and OSU) to date are perhaps larger than at OU. Also, the bottom dwellers conference wise don't appear to have made enough of an improvement to challenge OU and UT, but might be able to move up the division rankings.

1A. Texas

Returning Starters: 6 on offense, 7 on defense

Key Losses: QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, DE Sergio Kindle, DT Lamar Houston, DB Earl Thomas, OL Adam Ulatoski, LB Rod Muckelroy,

Proven Playmakers: ????

902 yards receiving. The gap between Shipley and the next WR for UT. 1808 receiving yards lost between Shipley and Buckner. UT leading returning WR had 461 yards and was MIA in their bowl game. UT's leading rusher had 513 yards rushing. Garrett Gilbert did throw for 2 second half TDs against Bama,  he also had 4 ints, and one fumble while completing 37% of his passes. And nearly 2/3 of his passing yards and both TDs were to the graduated Shipley. So UT's massive mission for this spring, find a consistent reliable RB running game and find some playmaking WRs. Marquise Goodman seems to be as good a place as any to start in terms of a go to WR, still he only had 207 yards receiving last year. But he was the only other WR to show up against the Crimson Tide (and had a good game versus OU). After Goodman, UT's other WRs would seem to be James Kirkendoll and Malcolm Williams who combined for 4 yards against Bama.  UT's vaunted recruiting class brings an infusion of talent at WR. Several of those recruits may have to see the field. UT returns a bunch of players at RB, but it's hard to call any of them a playmaker. Gilbert might have similar mobility to Colt in terms of adding a QB run game, it's not clear from the bowl game. Gilbert also has to be a huge question mark with costly turnovers and poor accuracy plaguing his bowl game. Clearly, with a full spring as the starter and all the reps that will entail, Gilbert should be improved this fall. But it's doubtful that Gilbert can be expected to perform at the high level of McCoy's last two years (with Shipley/Cosby). OL must replace 3 starters with David Snow expected to move to Center. Kyle Hix should start at one of the tackle positions. The rest of the OL is guesswork at this point but could be very inexperienced at guard and at tackle. On defense, the picture is better save for the fact that the 4 losses were clearly their best defenders. Alex Okafor will be expected to be the next great UT DE. At DT, there's little depth and production, another area where freshman can be expected to make an impact. At LB, things are better with Acho and Robinson returning, freshman LB Hicks/Jackson might make a move at the other spot (depth is an issue). The secondary has great depth (UT's really done a great job recruiting DBs lately), but Thomas by a wide margin was the headliner. UT's CBs should be strength, and look for returning from academic limbo Christian Scott to make a move at safety. Overall, there's more clear talent on the defensive side, and now in their 3rd year under Muschamp I expect UT's defense to play at high level, although DL issues are a concern (teams were able to pass on UT, and Bama rushed on UT). UT will also need to break in a new kicker.

1B. Oklahoma

Returning Starters: Offense 8 (Sun Bowl starters) Defense 6

Key Losses: OL Trent Williams, CB Brian Jackson, CB Dominique Franks, LB Ryan Reynolds, OL Brian Simmons, TE Brody Eldridge, RB Chris Brown, LB Keenan Clayton

Proven Playmakers: Ryan Broyles, Demarco Murray, Jeremy Beal, Travis Lewis, Adrian Taylor,

There's only one reason why I'm ranking UT ahead of OU for now, OU's mess at OL and TE. Until something approaching stability, competency shows up there, UT is 1A.  OU has a huge edge at WR with Ryan Broyles and Dajuan Miller providing a terrific 1-2 punch (Broyles is the best returning WR in the Big 12). Jaz Reynolds had a nice freshman year and in the bowl game showed signs of being a reliable 3rd WR.  In addition, OU gets a huge boost from Kenny Stills enrolling early. At RB,  OU has a massive edge in Demarco Murray ability to run and as a pass receiving threat (Murray would be UT's leading returning WR with 482 yards). Jermie Calhoun provides depth at RB provided he can get over his fumbling issues. Landry Jones clearly struggled in 2009 at times especially away from Norman. Jones needs to cut down on INTs and improve his completion percentage. TE will probably still be a mystery until Austin Haywood shows up in August. James Hanna has all the tools to secure the job, but last fall let a smaller, slower walkon (with questionable hands) keep him on the bench. OL returns 8 players who started at OL. But notice not one is a proven playmaker, the OL turnstile must stop if OU has any hope of winning the south. On the defensive side, OU will clearly miss Gerald McCoy inside. As long as Adrian Taylor can return from injury, OU should be fine at DT if Jarmarkus McFarland steps up this spring. At DE, OU has starters returning in Alexander/Beal, this should be the strength of the defense. LB corps will be rebuilt save for Travis Lewis, with 4 to 5 players competing for the other slots (Ibiloye, R. Lewis, and Box having the most experience). OU has 3 starters identified in the secondary Jonathan Nelson, Quinton Carter, and Demontre Hurst. The only question is whether Nelson plays safety or CB which depends upon the battle at safety this spring between newcomers. OU's other biggest worry is at field goal kicker. Field goal kicking arguably cost OU two games last year, and has been a disaster two years in a row. With a rebuilding defense and suspect OL, OU will need to cash in on every offensive opportunity.

3. ATM

Returning Starters: Offense 7, Defense 9

Key Losses: DB Jordan Pugh, DB Trent Hunter, OL Lee Grimes

Proven Playmakers: QB Jerrod Johson, WR Jeff Fuller, DE Von Miller, RB Cyrus Gray

If Sherman is going to truly save his job this is the year. ATM returners the best QB in the division and the 2nd best WR (Fuller behind Broyles)/Best WR core (Fuller, Tannehill, Morrow, Nwachukwu) in the division. ATM has nice depth at RB with Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael who combined for over 1500 yards rushing. Johnson had a very positive second year as the starter at QB other than a very bad bowl game, Johnson needs to improve on his accuracy and completion percentage to take that next step as an elite QB. Unfortunately, the OL needs to be rebuilt ( LSU transfer Matt Allen should help at one Guard spot) and while ATM had a great recruiting class OL wise it's probably unwise to expect those players to help immediately. If ATM can put together an OL, then ATM should have the best offense in the division. The positives all end with the offense. The defense does return Von Miller, but that's really about it. Teams passed and run on the Aggies. ATM lost their best secondary defenders in Jordan Pugh and Trent Hunter as well. There was a lot of youth played by ATM last year, but no one really stood out save for Michael Hodges at LB. There's not an influx of defensive talent arriving in August either (most of ATM's best signees are on the offensive side), although DL recruit Demontre Moore could surprise. ATM does get OU/Nebraska in College Station.

4. Baylor

Returning Starters: Offense 7, Defense 2

Key Losses: LB Joe Pawelek, DT Jason Lamb, WR David Gettis,

Proven Playmakers: QB Robert Griffin, WR Kendall Wright,

Baylor season really ended last year when Robert Griffin got hurt. This 4th place prediction is based solely on his ability to get back on the field. A returned to form Griffin is the best QB in the conference. Baylor on offense with Griffin at the helm has playmakers at WR and with Griffin's running threat returned that should open things up for Jay Finley at RB. Baylor has to find two new starters at OL, but in massive JUCO OL Robert Griffin (that should be confusing for Bob Barry Senior when we play Baylor) one of those spots should be filled. The defense is gutted losing 9 starters. The biggest loss here is leader Joe Pawelek at LB. There are names on the depth chart but no clear stars at DL or LB. The secondary was also gutted, Baylor's recent recruiting class best players were all defensive backs including indecisive but talented Ahman Dixon.

5. Texas Tech

Returning Starters: Offense 8,  Defense 6

Key Losses: OL Marlon Winn, OL Brandon Carter, DE Brandon Sharpe, DB Jamar Wall,

Proven Playmakers: RB Brandon Batch, WR Alexander Torres, DT Colby Whitlock.

Where do you start with this team? The personality change from Leach to Tuberville is impossible to predict without seeing the Raiders hit the field. If, and it's a big if, Tech runs the same offense as last year they have QBs in Potts and Sheffield to run the spread. WRs depth is good, and starters return there as well. Brandon Batch had a very strong year rushing and receiving and provides a playmaker at RB. But Batch is probably not a 30 carry a game I formation type RB, that's not his game. Maybe, Tuberville really will run a wild open spread attack. He's never done that, but Leach's recruiting may not leave him any option for the foreseeable future. The main worry on offense is replacing 3 offensive line starters, multi-year starters for the Raiders with no real upper classman depth to call upon. The defense actually had their best year under Leach, but loses the bulk of the DL that made that possible. Tech does return Whitlock at DT, and Bird at LB, along with 3 starters in the secondary. JUCO DE signee Scott Smith should be one of the DE when he arrives in August. So there are pieces in the back 7 but most of the playmakers are all gone. If Leach were returning, I would probably have ranked Tech 3rd in the division due to the potential at QB and WR. However, with the coaching turnover, it's hard to say how the team will react to all the turnover. Tuberville made his name on fast athletic defenses in the SEC. He doesn't have those pieces yet. Can he continue to to use the spread offensive pieces in place while he recruits his own players? Can the offense continue to run without the Mad Pirate?

6. Oklahoma State

Returning Starters: Offense 4, Defense 2

Key Losses: QB Zach Robinson, RB Keith Toston, OL Russell Okung, CB Perrish Cox, LB Patrick Lavine, LB Donald Booker

Proven Playmakers: RB Kendall Hunter

Last year was the year. This year OSU really gets to prove whether their recruiting has really improved and what kind of coaching staff they have in Stillwater. Offense returns 4 starters including Kendall Hunter. Hunter if healthy which he hasn't been the last two years would be one of the best RBs in the country. OSU may need Hunter to be healthy because the options are QB are very inexperienced. Brandon Weeden or Alex Cate have the experience edge. Cate in his only start against CU, very nearly lost that game and looked completely ineffective. Weeden came off the bench to save the Cowboys, but the next week in Norman in limited action looked as ineffective as Cate. Quite a bit of speculation that true freshman QB Johnny Deaton might end up being the starter (Deaton has a skill set similiar to Robinson). Some young WR talent does return in Hubert Anyiam and Tracy Moore, but without Dez Bryant the Cowboys passing game really didn't scare anyone. 4 OL starters leave including top OT Russell Okung, so the OL must be completely rebuilt. Ugo Chinasa at DE is about it in terms of returning defense. The defense must be completely reorganized. And while Gundy may have done a better job in recruiting offensive skill guys, he's had a harder time finding defensive talent. There are backups listed but the OSU defense looks to be in horrible shape.

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