| 01 October 2010
Some very random thoughts on OU v UT
Normally you can see all kinds of matchups being projected from various web sites.
The real problem with that is that these teams walk into the Cotton Bowl with serious gaps that make predictions almost impossible.
Liabilities:
- UT cannot run the ball at all and doesn't have a reliable feature back
- Gilbert is struggling to get the passing game going and no one among the UT WRs has established themselves as the go to WR.
- UT is having major issues protecting the football the last two games
- UT's defense got absolutely shredded by an average UCLA running attack
- UT's offense resembles FSU far more than any other OU opponent
- OU's running game is struggling at times, but does have good RB talent with Murray and Madu (OU has been good so far on 3rd and short and running in the red zone)
- OU's defense has only played 3 sustained qtrs of assignment sound football.
- OU's defense has given up big plays on the ground and in the air.
- Field goal kicking game is still a kick to kick adventure
Strengths:
Now I could kick around all kinds of discussion on these liabilities but the game will be decided by the strength on strength matchup. (Unless one team suffers a major breakdown in special teams or there's a huge disparity in the turnover battle. Right now OU comes into Dallas ahead in the turnover ratio department, and Landry Jones has been doing a much better job protecting the football)
- OU can throw the ball effectively
- UT can defend the pass effectively (based primarily on the Tech game)
OU will be the best passing attack that UT has seen by a wide margin, and UT will be best secondary that OU has seen.
This game will be decided by this matchup. As much as Sooner fans have dreams of just lining up and smashing the Horns based on the UCLA game, UT will scheme to stop the run. Sell out might be a better description. Now everyone raves about Muschamp's defense but he has not really stopped OU's passing game in 3 games. Even last year, Landry Jones was able to move the ball at times through the air. OU unfortunately settled for FGs (2), missed a FG, and fumbled a ball on 4 drives inside the UT 30 last year. Those missed opportunities cost OU dearly.
OU comes into this year's game with a more complete passing attack than last year by a pretty large margin (with the only elite offensive player for either team). This is the main reason why I think that OU will win this game.
Players to Watch (ignoring Landry and Gilbert)
Ryan Broyles: He's really the number reason why I think that OU wins the game. No one yet has been able to stop him to any meaningful degree. Through 4 games, he's the best WR in the country
Aaron Williams: UT fans like to argue that he's the best CB in the country. Well he's going to get to prove his fans right by covering Broyles. The more help he needs, the more gaps appear in UT's coverage
Jeremy Beal: OU's best defender has not been getting his regular allotment of sacks. He's ready for a big game, and Gilbert is the least mobile QB target that OU will have faced.
Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat: You have to pressure Landry Jones to stop the OU passing game and the young Horn DEs are the key to that strategy. If they are contained, then Landry will have time to find his WRs.
Demontre Hurst: Through 4 games, it's almost like teams have stopped throwing in Hurst's direction. "Hurst Island" might be an exaggeration, but you figure UT will have to attack Hurst and fellow CB Fleming if they cannot get their running game going.
Kenny Stills/Dejuan Miller: I think that UT will try and sell out to stop OU's running game, knowing that if OU can run the ball then this game is over. This will leave holes in their pass defense. UT must also roll additional coverage on Broyles. This will leave open space for Stills and Miller to make plays with single coverage. Stills and Miller have been improving week over week and Stills in particular could be due for his national coming out party.
Mike Davis: Davis is banged up which is bad news for the Horns because he's close to being that go to WR that the Horns badly need. Gilbert does not have the same safety blanket like Jones has right now.
Kirkendoll/DJ Monroe/Marquise Goodwin: If Davis can provide an outside threat, it's going to be up to someone from the Horns WR corps to be a threat at the slot position. Cincinnati's biggest successes through the air came via DJ Woods from the slot position. Jermicheal Finley torched OU in 2007, and then Shipley in 2008. Shipley played outside last year and OU shut him down. Slot WRs/TEs have been the bane of Venables' defenses in recent years.
Trey Millard: Millard is the only complete player in the TE/H-Back mold for either team. He's a load blocking in the run game, and is dangerous in the passing game. Millard's versatility has restored OU's no huddle ability to run or pass. Millard getting into space could cause huge problems for UT LBs and give Landry a key check down option on 3rd downs.
