| 16 August 2010
PreSeason Outlook (8/10/2010)
Top Stories to Watch
1. Can the projected OL starting unit actually go through camp and make it to the Utah State game?
Here’s the projected lineup. Mensik/Jarvis Jones- RT Tyler Evans – RG Habern- C Stephen Good- LG Stephenson – LT.
There’s only one position in play and that’s RT. OU also wants to get playing time for Gabe Ikard (his move to center will allow OU to redshirt Austin Woods and get two years gap between Habern and Woods. Between Ikard and Woods OU can hopefully break the freshman center starting cycle Carter/Cooper/Habern), Bronson Irwin is too good to redshirt. Corey Brandon from all reports had a bad offseason, so don’t be surprised if Josh Aladenoye and one of the freshman tackles end up passing Brandon for second team playing time. The starting group is pretty solid, and had a great offseason. There appears to be some chemistry along the OL. It’s doubtful that the OL can be 2008 good, but think about the Sooner OL in 2006 and the parallels are there. Chris Messner was the only senior (converted QB/DE) along with young OL that had struggled greatly in 2005. That Sooner OL was very productive for Adrian Peterson, Allen Patrick and Paul Thompson. And developed into the great Sooner OL of 2007/2008.
2. Every second year QB under Bob Stoops has improved considerably and has won a Big 12 Title, will Landry break that streak ? What is Landry’s potential ceiling?
Josh Heupel in 2000, Nate Hybl in 2002, Jason White in 2004, Paul Thompson in 2006, Sam Bradford in 2008. Landry Jones in 2010. Under Bob, every second year QB has played better than their first year and has won a Big 12 title. To focus on recent history, QB Heupel/OC Wilson have had direct success as a coaching combo with their second year QBs. PT was so ineffective in 2005 he lost his job. But in 2006, he rallied the team after BomarGate and led OU to a Big 12 Title (massive choke job by UT nonewithstanding). Sam in 2007 was very very good. Sam in 2008 was ridiculously elite with only one marginal game coming in the national title game. Now Landry had more of a 2005 Bomar like first year than any other OU QB. And we never got to see the 2nd year edition of Rhett. I think the Landry ceiling is somewhere around Nate Hybl to Jason White. Give him a solid running game and good WRs, and Landry can win a conference title. For OU to win a national title with Landry, OU is going to have to have an elite 2000/2001/2009 defense. If the pieces arrive Landry don’t improve though (OL, running game, WR core, TE), I’m not sure he’s the kind of playmaking QB that can lift up an average offense.
3. Can OU find something approaching a reliable kicker?
Lost in all the stories about OU’s injuries and the chaos it created was the whole scale abomination that was the Sooners’ kicking game. With such a great defense even with the offense struggling, OU should have been able to play field position if they had a reliable kicker (this is also known as Ohio State offensive football). Decent FG kicking means wins in Dallas (UT would have pressed even more trailing by more than a TD, OU might have gotten even more turnovers), probably saves the Nebraska game, and probably puts OU in striking distance for the Miami game. BYU game just seems cursed in retrospect (so many chances to put that game away), and the defense finally quit against Texas Tech. Still OU would be staring 10-3 instead of 8-5. In all of those close losses, you never felt like OU could kick their way to 6 points to overcome a 4 point deficit, and neither did the coaches. OU was consistently trying to score the touchdown due to lack of confidence in the kicking game. OU kept chasing points because they could not bank on points from their kicker (same thing happened in the national title game versus UF. With a good kicker, OU kicks a FG before half, Sam never even tries to throw for the end zone. OU kicks a FG on 4th and 2 on the Florida 2, and a good kicker hits the 42 yarder in the 3rd quarter. Those 9 points change that football game. Bob started gambling more and more on 4th down due to having no kicker). In TaW’s opinion, Jimmy Stevens is just not a Div 1 kicker. He has no real lift or punch to his kicks. He is always going to have issues with blocks and never going to be reliable outside of the 30. So the hope lies in Patrick O’Hara, Bryce Easly, or Micheal Hunnicutt. Just like Way took over punting duties after a redshirt year, I’m hoping that Easly takes over. Hunnicutt is definitely a wildcard and certainly has an impressive reference from his kicking coach/guru. I don’t really care who it is as long as this weapon returns to our coaching options. Think back to the last clutch road FG hit by a Sooner kicker. It’s really hard to do.
4. The Rise of The California 3
Right now it’s very possible that Kenny Stills and Tony Jefferson are de facto starters for OU this year. Kenny Stills looks poised to be the perfect foil for the coverage attention that Ryan Broyles is going to garner. Jaz Reynolds having an awesome camp is the only thing that can keep Stills from being a huge part of the WR rotation. In fact, TaW thinks the top 3 WRs stats wise for OU will be Broyles, Miller, and Stills. Tony Jefferson might not technically start for OU but could be on the field almost all the time in his SS/OLB/Nickel LB role. Now, the impact of Brennan Clay may take a little longer, unless Clay can make an impact on special teams. Clay certainly has not disappointed anyone and Miller/Calhoun should certainly worry about Clay taking any non-Murray carries away from them. The only thing right now that looks like it might keep Clay from stardom is his classmate Roy Finch. Both Clay and Finch bring a receiving game at RB that only Murray currently provides, so their skill set is similar. It’s a coin toss which freshman RB might get more opportunities. OU very possibly has signed 3 five star elite players away from the Pac 10. It’s the equivalent of UGA signing 3 top 5 players from Texas. In addition, early on the field success for those players could translate into more Southern Cal recruits looking at OU.
5. Exactly how much will OU’s defense miss Gerald McCoy?
In theory, there’s no way you can replace a top 3 pick/difference maker at DT and not miss a beat. It just doesn’t happen. The loss of McCoy should make OU more vulnerable to the run and less able to generate a pass rush with 4 DL meaning less guys available to drop into coverage. Added blocking attention for Jeremy Beal and Adrian Taylor will reduce their stats from last year. That’s one strong, sound theory. Here’s the counter theory, Jeremy Beal is a great place to start in rebuilding the defense, he’s an elite DE. If OU gets more out of Frank Alexander at the other DE than a pretty average year from Auston English, and Adrian Taylor rebounds from his leg injury to have a great year , then two more pieces are in play. Finally if Jamarkus McFarland can continue to improve then you have a good front four. OU could see more playmaking at LB with Ronnell Lewis, Travis Lewis, Tom Wort, and Austin Box. Ronnell Lewis might even up playing more of a 3-4 LB role along with Beal giving OU multiple looks and an additional pass rush threat. Add in hybrid LBs/SS Jefferson and Ibiloye, and OU could be even better at LB than last year. Safety is in great shape with Nelson and Carter, and right now CB looks very solid with Hurst and Fleming (if Jefferson could be an every down safety, then Nelson would take over for Fleming). There will be a drop off from last year, but the decline might not be sharp. And if Lewis, Lewis, Beal, Taylor, Carter, Nelson, Hurst, Alexander, all raise their games, the drop off might disappear all together.
6. Does OU have any real options at TE?
Losing Sam was terrible last year, but a reasonable argument could be made that if Landry had had Jermaine Gresham as a safety valve especially in the red zone (way too many red zone fgs last year) that OU might have been able to win some of those close games. Gresham along with Broyles might have been enough weapons to keep OU’s offense moving. Sam to Landry transition was like going from 10 to 5. Gresham to Hanna/Ratterree was going from 10 to 0. The loss of a real TE crippled the no huddle, crippled the running game, and turned OU into a spread offense with a new QB and new WRs when our only real depth was at RB. So is there any hope now? Spring was uneven for the position, but right now there are 4 main suspects; Lane Johnson 6-7, 260, 4.8 former HS QB, Trent Ratterree 6-3, 240, 4.8(walkon who really should not be starting for OU), James Hanna 6-4, 235, 4.6 (who was supposed to replace Jermaine but is looking like a huge bust), and finally Austin Haywood 6-4,245, 4.7 (HS highlight reel was awesome). Now Johnson looks ready to fill the Brody Eldridge blocking role. He’s in great physical shape. The real TE role? No word on anyone starring, but TaW thinks that Haywood ends up playing the most and by the end of the year OU has a tight end playmaker again.
7. Will Bob let freshman play a role in special teams return game?
OU had a fantastic recruiting class. Great RBs, great QB, great OL class, great speed. OU in addition may have signed their greatest collection of skilled return players ever. Roy Finch is deadly at both punt and kickoff returns. Justin McCay is a kickoff returning machine (speed/power think JT Thatcher). Brennan Clay excelled at both in HS. And finally, 100m champion Trey Franks brings more speed to OU in the return game than OU has ever had under Bob. Now, Ryan Broyles is a great punt returner, so taking him away from that game doesn’t make any sense. But, OU’s kickoff return game last year was average, and OU really doesn’t need Demarco Murray back there. Now Bob has been hesitant to let any true freshman fill that role. OU fans watched a year of Curtis Fagan return punts before Antonio Perkins got to take over. Murray did star in 2007 but as a redshirt freshman. No idea if the freshman can make that transition, but the talent is certainly there.
8. Is 2010 going to be like 2006?
Other than the QB debacle surrounding Mr. Bomar, there are so many parallels between the seasons. Coming off 8-5 seasons that were injury plagued. OU rallied at the end of the previous season with a bowl win over a Pac 10 team. Rebuilt OL returns key pieces (save for losing NFL 1st round pick Davin Joseph for Trent Williams), rebuilding WR core with one star (Malcolm Kelly in 2006/Broyles in 2010). Defense has lost an elite DT (Dusty Dvoracek) and needs younger players to step up. OU badly needs a freshman TE to step and provide an impact (Jermaine Gresham – Austin Haywood). UT is starting a brand new starter at QB (McCoy for Gilbert) and rebuilding to a degree from being in a national title game. Boise State is predicted to go undefeated. Ohio State is a trendy pick to win the national title. What’s the major difference for OU? In Landry’s second year as starter, how much can Landry improve to push OU to a conference title season/BCS bowl game.
