2011 Preseason Storylines

• First time that I can really recall under Stoops that OU is waiting this late in the year for updates on academic issues. Ronnell Lewis in particular is rumored to be in some sort of academic danger. OU is still waiting on word on Trey Metoyer and Jordan Wade. OU really does not need Metoyer being a free agent all fall and able to sign with anyone else. Especially if OU gets a verbal from DGB, Metoyer could be convinced by another program that OU is too deep at WR. You can never have enough DTs so losing Jordan Wade would be a disappointment, plus it’s not a great year for DTs in OU’s regular recruiting regions.
• Connected to the Ronnell Lewis issue, OU’s weakest point with the reinstatement of Jamell Fleming is at DE. OU really only has a known quantity in Frank Alexander, and if Ronnell Lewis is out the only other DEs with playing time are David King and RJ Washington. King and Washington so far have struggled to make any real impact in their Sooner careers to date. Future DE stars Geneo Grissom and Nathan Hughes haven’t played a snap yet. With the passing threats in the Big 12, a lack of an outside pass rush could become a serious issue. no comments

Top 25 Players in the Big 12 (10)
A list that is so heavily skewed to the offense due to Blackmon, Fuller, and Broyles all returning to play college football along with veteran QBs Weeden, Griffin, Jones, and Tannehill, in addition the defensive losses were huge with Sam Acho, Von Miller, Jeremy Beal, Aldon Smith, Quinton Carter, Aaron Williams, as well as the losses of the NU defense to the Big Ten (Lavonte Smith, Cameron Meredith). It could be a huge year for Big 12 offenses with the disparity in returning talent so heavily leaning to the offenses.
Some may call his list a total homer list, but it's based on All Big 12 teams, returning stats leaders, and player stats (JosephRandle for instance).
This is not the list to argue that Jackson Jeffcoat is going to have a huge year that may be true but his stats from last year don't put him on this list. It's not
the impact freshman of the year list either. 

1. Justin Blackmon: Returning national award winner. Amazing sophomore year from relative obscurity.
2. Ryan Broyles: Stunned and amazed Sooner fans with his return for his senior year. Has a chance at every Div 1 WR record in the books.
3. Jeff Fuller: Fuller has been playing in the shadow of WRs like Shipley, Iglesias, Broyles, Blackmon, and Bryant since his freshman year. Can he finally break out and be the number one WR in the conference?
4. Cyrus Gray: It's sad it took an injury to Christine Michael but Gray is the best returning RB in the league. Gray was a huge reason for the ATM late season surge.
5. Landry Jones: How do you slot the 4 returning QBs in the Big 12? It's hard to evaluate, but Landry had the best end of the season and won his head to head matchup with Weeden in Stillwater, and beat the NU defense in Dallas. Plus he did win the Sammy Baugh trophy as the best passing QB in the country.
6. Brandon Weeden: Weeden had a great junior year, and with Blackmon returning will look to try and lead OSU to their first Big 12 Title ever.
7. Jamell Fleming: Led the Big 12 in interceptions and passes defended. Also a huge asset in run support with 8 tackles for loss. Completely overlooked for All Big 12 status. With the departure of Amakamura and Aaron Williams, Fleming is the best CB in the pass happy Big 12.
8. Ryan Tannehill: Saved ATM's season and Mike Sherman's job. Tannehill has one last season to help ATM win the Big 12 for the first time since 1998.
9. Travis Lewis: Stunned Sooner fans by coming back for his senior year. Best returning LB in the Big 12. Just look at his 2010 Big 12 Title game performance for an idea of his big play capability.
10. Robert Griffin: Griffin could end the year number one on this list. He improved his passing game, but to be elite Griffin will need to bring back that big play running game.
11. Michael Egnew: Best returning TE in the country. Who is going to get him the ball?
12. Brad Madison: Aldon Smith got a lot of the publicity, but Madison one of the few players in the top ten of both sacks and tackles for loss.
13. Frank Alexander: High ankle sprain early in the year limiting his effectiveness, but had an amazing surge to end the year with double digit tackles for loss and 6 sacks.
14. Kheeston Randall: With the departures of Williams and Acho, Randall is the only playmaker returning on the Horn defense. If he can get some help at DT, Randall could have a huge year.
15. Ryan Swope: Posted over 800 yards and was a great second target for the ATM passing attack.
16. TJ Moe: After Egnew, Moe was the best target for the Missouri passing game. Only the uncertainty at QB for Missouri has him this low.
17. Jake Knott: All everything stats LB for ISU. Tackles, Ints, passes defended, forced fumbles.
18. Kenny Stills: Should have been co Offensive Freshman of the Year with Taylor Martinez. Despite a slow start (50 yards in first two games), Stills posted 786 yards receiving yards showing great versatility as a both a deep threat and a target across the middle. Could easily break out with a 1,000 yard season. Best games came against the best competition.
19. Joseph Randle: Kendall Hunter is gone, but OSU fans shouldn't worry. Randle is a big time threat in the passing game with over 400 yards last year, and averaged 5.5 yards as Hunter's primary backup.
20. Kendall Wright: Robert Griffin's favorite target. Wright has serious homerun speed and had a huge clutch game against UT last year.
21. Shaun Lewis: Co Defensive Freshman of the Year. Lewis with graduation losses at LB will need to be the leader of the OSU defense. Tackles for loss and INTs highlight his playmaking ability.
22. Tony Jefferson: Co Defensive Freshman of the year. Jefferson will need to fill the void left by Quinton Carter to lead the Sooner secondary. Jefferson is a force as a blitzer with sacks and tackles for loss while also making plays in the secondary with passes defended and ints.. Could take a huge step in being the next great Sooner safety.
23. Eric Stephens: Rushed for over 700 yards for Texas Tech. With graduation losses at QB and WR, look for Stephens to be an offensive focus for the Raiders.
24. James Sims: KU was bad last year, just awful. Somehow James Sims managed to rush for over 700 yards and average 4.4 a carry. An amazing achievement.
25. David Garrett: KSU DB led the Wildcats in tackles, passes defended, and fumble recoveries.

So by team:

OU: 7 (there's a reason why OU is looking like a unanimous preseason national number 1 team for 2011, and Trey Millard All Big 12 second team FB was left off this list)
OSU: 4
ATM: 4
Missouri: 3
Baylor: 2
UT: 1 (Horn fans may complain that Emmanuel Acho was left off the list, and he was in line near the end but at 5-7 with as many RBs that had 100 yards rushing days on UT their LB play last year doesn't justify putting Acho or Keenan Robinson on here.)
KSU: 1
KU: 1
Tech: 1 no comments

When trying to guess a top 25 for next year a week after the title game has just been played is an effort in depth chart reading and early entry watching. So I'm going to do a top 20 for starters. The last five end up being big time programs you think will rally after bad years with little to no evidence that they will.
Until Spring games are played, and you assess new stars, new injuries, there's very little to go from save for depth chart counting and some arbitrary shuffling of really good teams from last year who have massive depth chart holes.
I'm going to try and use some criteria to objectify the process.

Just like an NFL team with uncertainty at QB, it's hard to rank a college team high that does not have a starting QB. Stanford for instance with Luck returning is a top five team, without him somewhere in the top 20.
Returning OL starters for the most part are also worth their weight in preseason rankings gold. (Auburn had a senior OL and will be replacing 4 starters. Coincidence? Doubtful).
A dominant returning DL would also receive heavy consideration (I cannot think of one right now)
Proven Star/elite skill folks will be considered heavily – Ryan Broyles, Justin Blackmon, Michael Dwyer, Lamichael James, Ashlon Jefferies,
As will proven elite defenders- Travis Lewis, Nigel Bradham, Tank Carder, Janoris Jenkins,

1. Oklahoma
Why? 17 returning starters (including 4 OL starters and one part time starter). Best WR core in the nation. Best QB returning not named Andrew Luck. Defensive gets leader Travis Lewis back and productive players returning at every level Frank Alexander at DE, Austin Box at LB, Jamell Fleming at CB, Demontre Hurst at CB.
Why not? RB position has unreal depth and recruited talent, but none of the RBs have proven that they can replace Murray in all facets of the game. Kicking game is still a huge question mark, both FG kicking and kickoff coverage.
2. Alabama
Why? Only Julio Jones is a real loss for the tide. They have depth at RB, DL, and McCarron at QB does not have to make the plays that most new QBs will have to make with Bama's powerful running attack.
Why not? Bama's secondary was suspect last year and didn't really improve over the season. Teams able to exploit that matchup with the loss of Dareus at DE still could give Bama trouble.
3. Stanford
Why? Andrew Luck. The best QB in college football. In addition, Stanford returns a deep core of RBs to take the pressure of Luck. Fleeger at TE could be a Mackey Award winner after huge Orange Bowl
Why not? New WRs are needed, OL must be rebuilt (3 new starters), and defense loses Marecic at LB.
4. South Carolina
Why? Marcus Lattimore and Ashlon Jefferies. No one in college football returns such a powerful 1-2 offensive punch. SEC East is in rebuilding mode with UF retooling under new coach. Have already proven that they can beat the Tide. Defense returns 7 starters
Why not ? Stephen Garcia is a pretty limited QB and their bowl loss was not a step in the right direction.
5. Oregon
Why? Darron Thomas and a core of fast RBs return. Defense loses a bunch of playmakers but Oregon played a lot of backups quality minutes due to blowouts and no huddle attack.
Why not? Best WR has to be replaced, OL must be rebuilt. Few defensive playmakers save for Cliff Harris return. Oregon will retool, but is the most vulnerable early to an upset (see Boise State game in 2009).
6. LSU
Why? LSU returns 4 OL starters along with 6 defensive starters. Jefferson had a great bowl game and has real competition in JUCO QB Zach Mettenberger. Defense returns a solid core but is missing stars Nevis and Peterson.
Why not? QB problems. Jefferson has this cycle of playing great in bowl games and then starts the season erratically. Top targets at WR need to be replaced. Offense has not been sharp the last two seasons and the loss of Ridley early is real blow to that offensive attack.
7. Ohio State
Why? Ohio State returns their QB along with their top RB and top WR. No one else in the Big Ten has that kind of returning firepower.
Why not? None of that firepower will play the first five games, and despite excellent recruiting Ohio State loses 7 defensive starters who must be replaced. Ohio State could lose two games before the players return and then end the year as a top three team locked out of the BCS title due to the suspension based early losses.
8. FSU
Why? FSU returns part time starter EJ Manuel at QB, and a host of defensive starters in their second year in Mark Stoops scheme. Nigel Bradham might be the best LB in the country. Top RBs also return.
Why not? OL must be rebuilt and FSU does not appear to have a difference maker at RB or at WR right now.
9. Oklahoma State
Why? OSU returns their QB and Biletnikoff Winner Blackmon at WR. There's excellent talent at RB. OL is solid.
Why not? Defense was bad last year, and loses the bulk of their front seven. OSU will have to win shootouts again. But they have the talent on offense to do that.
10. West Virginia
Why? They return the best QB, Geno Smith, in the Big East, and have recruited the best speed in the conference. The addition of Holgerson calling plays with that level of returning talent makes WVU a threat to run the table.
Why not? Coaching controversy derailed the team's bowl prep, and could derail the season. Defense must be rebuilt.
11. ATM
Why? QB Ryan Tannehill, Jeff Fuller, and Cyrus Gray return as does a young developing OL
Why not? Team speed on defense without Von Miller looks very suspect in a conference loaded with passing attacks.
12. Arkansas
Why? Returning talent at WR, TE, RB. New QB Wilson has looked good in limited time
Why not? Defense struggles against the pass and run.
13. Nebraska
Why? Pellini is building a program on great defensive speed and pressure. Taylor Martinez has a huge upside at QB along with veteran RBs.
Why not? Offensive line and secondary needs retooling, and passing game targets are suspect.
14. Boise State
Why? Kellen Moore.
Why not? Boise loses 15 starters including both top playmakers on defense and both WRs.
15. Wisconsin
Why? Great running back core returns.
Why not? New QB, OL must be rebuilt and defense loses top playmakers
16. Miss State
Why? Huge momentum off bowl win. Miss State returns their improving QB Chris Relf and core of their defense.
Why not? Still missing playmakers in passing game and at RB.
17. Auburn
Why? Return an excellent group of WRs and RBs.
Why not? OL loses 4 starters, there's no one with experience at QB, and defense must be completely rebuilt.
18. TCU
Why? TCU returns some key defensive pieces. Casey Paschall in limited action appears ready to take over at QB.
Why not? TCU loses their QB, their biggest playmaker Kerley, and their entire secondary.
19. Virginia Tech
Why? Four starters return on the OL with RB departures David Wilson will now get his shot at feature back.
Why not? No Tyrod Taylor.
20. Michigan State
Why? Returns their offensive core including QB Cousins and top RBs
Why not? Did you watch the bowl game defense and that was with All American LB Greg Jones no comments

Spring Preview

With the news that OU got a massive late Xmas present in the form of Ryan Broyles and Travis Lewis returning for their senior years, it's time to talk about the up coming spring football season.

The Storylines

1. Don't you forget about me. The last 3 years a third or second year defender with limited prior playing time has seized a starting job in spring, and goes onto star the following season. Who will it be this spring?
- RJ Washington: is the most likely suspect. Washington has been stuck behind All World DE Jeremy Beal. OU needs help at pass rushing DE (Ronnell Lewis has shown a disturbing injury bug), and it's time for RJ to make his move.
- Kevin Brent: injuries and influx of underclassman defensive backs have put Brent on the back burner. However, if Brent is healthy and in shape, OU needs to find 1 or 2 safeties this spring.
- Gabe Lynn: fallen behind Demontre Hurst and Aaron Colvin as the top young CBs in the program. Lynn has the frame to play FS, and OU needs to find starting safeties this spring.

2. Redshirting new stars. As good as the freshman playing were last year, there might be an even better second wave hitting this spring. Already, in separate interviews from the coaches a number of the freshman have been mentioned as starring in scout development roles this fall. It's impossible to think that OU has hit on everyone but here's five key kids.
- Torrea Peterson: the best DT that OU signed last year. If not for his knee injury, Peterson would have played a lot last year. Peterson has been compared to a more athletic Granger.
- Geneo Grissom: the best DE that OU signed last year. If not for his foot injury, Grissom would have played a lot last year. Grissom will be in the DE battle and could be a key part in replacing the sack totals provided by Jeremy Beal. The coaches felt before he got hurt that Grissom's potential was equal to UT's Jackson Jeffcoat.
- Darry Williams: Williams in August camp looked like an NBA PF at 6-5, 300 playing OT. He's had a great fall, and the coaches view him as the next great Sooner OL. OU has limited depth at OT behind Jarvis Jones and Stephenson so Williams could get a bunch of playing time as he's been readied to start in 2012.
- James Haynes: Haynes is the part of the speed team that OU signed last year. We've already seen that in Kenny Stills and Trey Franks. Haynes is the defensive back contingent. He's got speed and size, and as I mentioned earlier OU needs to find safeties this spring.
- Justin McCay: Before OU got Trey Metoyer and he established himself as possibly the best HS WR prospect in the country, last fall McCay was going to be the "big " impact WR for OU. Now the question is whether McCay dominates at WR or moves into a OLB/SS role where his skill set project at a 5 star level. Metoyer is not on campus yet and Dejuan Miller may be limited due to injury giving McCay all spring to fine tune his WR role. Or we may see his move to defense where he projects to something like a faster more physical Nic Harris. Did I mention that OU needs to find safeties this spring?

3. Can they take the next step to stardom to all conference edge of All American level? If OU is in New Orleans waiting for the BCS title to start, these guys are the likely suspects why.
- Stacey McGee: McGee at times was making plays reminiscient of Gerald McCoy. With another year in the weight room getting to that ideal weight of 295/300 McGee could be that star interior player that OU needs.
- Javon Harris: Harris is the odds on favorite to win a starting safety spot after his stellar spot duty. Harris needs to provide stability to the secondary and playmaking to compliment the great CB tandem of Fleming/Hurst.
- Jarvis Jones: Jones needs a great offseason, add weight and strength and become the all conference tackle that he can be. Jones at times last year late in the year was OU's best lineman against the best competition. He has unlimited potential, it's time.
- James Hanna: Hanna had a breakout year, but there's still a higher level that he needs to hit. OU needs Hanna to be that run blocker/pass threat that allows OU to go no huddle and attack both ways. OU was settling for too many FGs, Hanna as Gresham lite can help with that problem.

4. The battle to replace Landry starts for real. Amazing as it sounds, in all likelihood Landry will leave early for the NFL as the second rated QB behind Andrew Luck holding every passing record in OU history (save for career passing efficiency). So the battle for the backup job will have 3 QBs with only Drew Allen having any actual snaps in a game (limited as they are). The hype has started on Blake Bell already. And Kendal Thompson arrives by enrolling early. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of these 3 QBs is their comfort level/skill in executing some QB run game. In a fan dream world, OU would work on a red zone package for one of these mobile QBs to help the Sooner's red zone issues. The mobile QB being the one element that in the red zone defenses cannot counter while being spread out. In reality, this spring brings a real battle for the backup position, that player will get the preparation edge in the fall. Drew Allen will be playing in his 3rd spring, so he has a significant experience edge over Bell/Thompson, and needs to display it this spring.

5. Defensive future 4-3 or 5-0? OU saved their season with a move to a hybrid 5-0 look instead of their traditional 4-3 look under Stoops. So what are we really talking about here?
a. OU's 4-3 under Bob has been 2 pure DTs (one more of a noseguard like Granger/Dvoracek, the other more of a quicker/penetrating DT like Harris/McCoy) with two pass rushing DEs in the 240 to 255 range (Dan Cody, Jeremy Beal). OU in this scheme would sometimes move at DT to DE (McCoy) and then have a DE play a true standup role (Cody or Beal). With the influx of talent from the two classes, the 4-3 DL should look like this
DT (1 technique): McFarland/Peterson/Damon Williams/Jordan Phillips
DT (3 technique): McGee/Noble/Eric Humphrey/Marquis Anderson
DE Weakside: Ronnell Lewis/RJ Washington/Geneo Grissom
DE Strongside: Frank Alexander/Nathan Hughes/David King/
b. With Taylor hurt, Walker and Noble out, OU was basically down to McGee and McFarland at DT. So with no depth, OU changed to a 5-0 scheme. In this scheme, OU rotated McGee and McFarland at DT/NG. At "DE", OU played Frank Alexander (who is almost 265/270), David King (6-5, 265) and Pryce Macon (6-2, 265). And then at OLB OU used a combination of Ronnell Lewis, Jeremy Beal, and as a Nickel LB Joseph Ibiloye. This allowed OU to get more pressure and use more zone blitz schemes. Ideally, the scheme would have a big DT/NG someone in the 6-3, 310 range, two big DEs 6-4, 275/280, and two OLBs capable of blitzing or dropping into coverage (6-2, 245). So what would a future 5-0 defense look like next year?
NG: McFarland/Peterson/Damon Williams/Daniel Noble
DE: McGee/Alexander/King/Eric Humphrey/Nathan Hughes
OLB- Pass rusher: Ronnell Lewis/RJ Washington/Geneo Grissom
OLB- Nickel LB: Tony Jefferson/Joseph Ibiloye/Aaron Franklin
Mike LB: Box/Wort
Will LB: Travis Lewis/Corey Nelson
c. So OU looks like they have both the numbers and the right personnel to use either scheme. What's the deciding factor? DT depth and performance. If McFarland and McGee take that next step to be great DT duo for OU, then OU reverts back to their previous scheme. And if OU can identify at least 2 other DTs to provide depth behind those two key juniors. In addition, Grissom and RJ Washington excelling at the pass rushing DE position can reinforce staying with the 4-3 scheme. That being said, OU could easily throw a 5-0 scheme at any opponent at any time.

6. Who will have the biggest buzz/hype of spring? The next great Sooner player who hasn't played a game yet. Odds on 4 likely suspects
a. Brandon Williams RB 6-1, 190, 4.35 . This early enrolling freshman could be ranked as the top HS RB in the country. OU needs to replace Demarco Murray and Williams could bring a home run threat missing since Murray broke his kneecap in Lubbock in 2007. 3-1
b. Blake Bell QB 6-6, 240, 4.65 . Depending upon scrimmage access the buzz/hype could reach huge levels. 5-1
c. Geneo Grissom DE 6-5, 240, 4.6 . OU needs a pass rushing threat. Grissom could be that guy. 8-1
d. Torrea Peterson DT 6-3, 310, 5.0 . DT depth is one of the keys in spring. Peterson could be the spring practice star. 10-1

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Early Big 12 Prediction - Redux
Well first off, what do we even call the conference now?
One big league with 9 game conference schedules changes things quite a bit, you no longer can avoid a potential foe due to the North/South split and a bunch of teams are losing that 4th OOC game that made them bowl eligible.

1. OU
Returns 9 starters on offense including Landry Jones. OU has the best returning WR corps in the country, great depth at RB, and TE. OL returns 5 players with significant starting time.
Defensively, OU returns 8 starters from the bowl and a host of other players with significant starting experience including leading tackler Travis Lewis.
They get Missouri, Tech and ATM in the invincible confines of Owen Field. They do have a return trip to Stillwater again, but OU seems to be able to win close games there against good Aggie teams.

2. ATM
Cyrus Gray and Ryan Tannehill give the Aggies their best hope in a while for a title. Their young OL could be a real difference maker. WR core save minus Fuller is missing a deep threat.
Defensively, ATM will be hard pressed to replace the impact of Von Miller. His final five game burst was defensive MVP worthy. A lot of pieces return, but there were still major issues in the secondary though.
Schedule is pretty favorable, but a trip Norman will test the progress of this young Aggie team. Home games against OSU and Missouri probably determine their Big 12 spot.

3. OSU
One player returning is probably the difference between fighting for 1st or being 4th for OSU. Justin Blackmon.
OSU can replace Kendall Hunter, but right now based on their current WR depth the Aggie passing game will suffer.
Defensively, OSU loses the bulk of their front seven (only two starters back), but there are young players at LB and DB that could be future stars. Still defense is far from where it needs to be for OSU to hold up in a 9 game conference schedule.
A tough road schedule at Missouri, ATM, Texas, and Texas Tech is the main reason for their 3rd place spot behind ATM.

4. Missouri
The biggest change in the second version. Missouri lost their QB and their best defensive player.
Offensivley Returns best WR, and their all league TE to go along with a veteran OL.
Defensively, Missouri is rebuilding with the loss of their best LB nad DE , but seems to have found the right scheme/coordinator but a senior laden secondary will need to be rebuilt.
They have to travel to Norman, but they get OSU in Columbia. If OU stumbles, a return trip to ATM could decide the conference

5. Baylor
Robert Griffin two years removed from his knee injury should be back completely. Baylor has skill players at RB and WR to compliment Griffin. OL returns a number of starters.
The defense wasn't that great, and Baylor loses some defensive pieces. But Briles seems to have Baylor on the upswing in recruiting and overall momentum. Creating a home field advantage is really the next step for the Bears.

6. KSU
KSU appears to have their next option QB to run things. Replacing Thomas at RB is going to be very difficult. But RB is a place where you can find recruits and that freshman can have an impact. Although, Joseph Randle starring at OSU has to be tough on Wildcat fans.
Defensively, KSU needs more speed and athleticism. Full schedule will hurt KSU due to only having 3 OOC games instead of Bill's usual 4 cupcakes (and Prince scheduling some real competition). This might be too high for the Wildcats, but momentum is there for the Wildcats.

7. UT
Where do you rank the Horns?
The list of issues is long, and getting longer. Right now things are in disarray in Austin.
Mack has blamed coaching as the source of all problems, but right now the Horns appear to have talent issues at TE, FB, WR, RB, and DT. There's a lot of recruiting blue chips, but with abundant playing time available no one stepped up this season.
UT has no returning playmakers, and Gilbert's confidence was shredded last year. Without knowing their OC, it's hard to know how much of a rebuilding job is going to occur. UT loses 3 starters at OL, and despite claims of their averageness UT is going to be young at OL as well.
Defensively things are in better shape if Jeffcoat can build upon his debut and some talent at DT other than Randall appears. Still losing Williams and Acho is a loss, and UT is looking at a new DC with a new scheme which is bound to be a transition on some level.

8. Tech
This is the real test for Tuberville. He's losing his Leach trained QB and most of the Leachified WR corps. The offense started to struggle last year, and can it work without the Pirate at the helm?
Defensively, Tech loses a lot of key pieces. Tuberville appears to be recruiting well on that side of the ball, and there's some young talent in the secondary. However, Tuberville's front seven does not look like the SEC defense he wants, and he lost this defensive coordinator.

9. ISU
Paul Rhoades was an injury to Austen Arnaud away from a bowl berth. That loss was a real blow to this program. Playing the entire Big 12 South instead of just 3 games is going to be tough for ISU to get to 6 bowl wins with only 3 OOC games (including home game with Iowa and at Big East winner UConn).
There's some talent on both sides of the ball, but breaking in a new QB is going to be the toughest part.

10. KU
KU may have a QB, and they may have a RB. Beyond that things look bleak in Lawrence. At times, KU looked like they had already quit on Turner Gill. Recruiting is not going very well, and the only thing to save Gill's job is a talent infusion.

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Regular Season Review

Sure OU has one more game left, but it’s probably a good time to review the high points and low points of the season with some key storylines.

1. Landry is a conference championship caliber QB. That is no longer a debatable topic. He has a Big 12 championship and OU doesn’t win without good to great play by Landry the last 3 weeks in the year. Now, Landry did keep OSU in the game, but he also twice put OSU away.  Considering the defensive competition and location of the game, his game against Nebraska was his best in a Sooner uniform. With a win over UConn, Landry can match Nate Hybl as the only 2-0 bowl game QB in Stoops history.  I’ve been mentioning all year that Landry has a ceiling and floor in terms of performance. We’ve been seeing the ceiling at home with games where it looked like Sam was still playing, and against UT ( save for one massive brain freeze in Dallas). We saw the bottom of the floor against Missouri and in the coaches’ lack of trust in Landry at ATM. And we’ve seen a very different Landry in the 4^th QTR in Stillwater and in Arlington, showing leadership and poise that haven’t been seen before. Can OU win a national title with Landry? With more weapons at WR (a big WR to compliment Stills/Franks was really needed Saturday night just like the UF title game, fortunately his name is Trey Metoyer) and at TE (more Hanna and hopefully the emergence of Haywood) and an improving OL, if Landry can continue to progress and avoid the “floor” then OU can get to title game with him at QB. But it’s not all Landry….

2. Three injuries derailed OU’s national title hopes this year.

• Adrian Taylor’s leg: OU struggled all year to field two OU caliber DTs. And never did. The weakness was never filled in our conventional 4-3 look. Sooner coaches kept playing Taylor hoping that he could return to form.

• Austin Box’s back: OU’s running game defense against spread formation teams was just transformed when Box returned.  OU’s defense was suddenly much better putting teams into more 3^rd and longs (the punt down).

• Ronnell Lewis’ knee: Lewis provided depth at DE and his impact on special teams is huge as well.  12-0 versus 19-0 in College Station proved to be very significant. Also, it wasn’t until Lewis returned that BV broke out his 5-2 defensive scheme that was so productive against OSU and Nebraska.

While some may point fingers at the offense as the sole reason for the losses at Columbia and College Station, the defense was unable to make big plays in the 4^th qtr to keep those games in hand. Running game defensive problems especially were big.

3. BV’s decision to use the 5-2 scheme saved this season.

Despite his maddening use of 3 LBs all season long in 2007/2008, BV in the last two years has showed a great flexibility in changing schemes to better fit his available talent. Last year the benching of Reynolds and the use of Ibiloye took the defense to another level in the  Texas game. This year the changeup to going with one pure DT, 2 DEs, and 2 OLBs was genius as well. With McGee and McFarland the only productive DTs and needed to get them rest, BV changed our base defense. Save for 3^rd and long against 4/5 WRs, OU has been a Base 4-3/4-2-5 team since Bob has been in Norman, this was a pretty risky move. And it paid off handsomely.

4. Never, ever write off players as busts or non-contributors.

Jamell Fleming who prior to this year has had zero starts turned in an all conference year at CB. Fleming got banged up in the middle of the year, but prior to that was playing at an elite level. He had an awesome two games to end the year, and teamed with Demontre Hurst and Aaron Colvin gives OU their best CB trio since Andre Woolfolk, Antonio Perkins, and Derrick Strait were available to Mike Stoops.

James Hanna after two pretty uneventful seasons, including last year when Sooner fans with the loss of JG were clamoring for him to play, had something just short of a breakout season. Hanna became a valuable weapon in the passing game, and key weapon in the red zone. Hanna seems poised for a huge senior year.

Pryce Macon. Almost completely forgotten and buried in the depth chart. After one of the best stats line ever for a Sooner DL against NU, Macon is the example of why you don’t give up kids, ever.

Huge edit required- Cameron Kenney. How did i forget the amazing 2 game comeback of Cameron Kenney. After Dejuan Miller went down, OU started using Trey Franks more as their 3rd WR. Franks in the OSU game kind of hit the freshman wall, and Kenney came off the bench to play a solid second half before making the play of his Sooner career. After that great OSU game, Kenney turned in a similar effort against Nebraska with a number of huge catches against a very good NU secondary. Kenney even made those plays against Prince Amakamura a projected top 15 pick in the draft. All credit Kenney for staying game ready after being demoted, and to Norvell for coaching up Cameron. 

5. The FG kicking issue continues

Despite some clutch short FGs to end the year, the NU game highlighted what a difference a real weapon at FG kicker can make. OU needed to get to the 15 yard line to ensure a good fg, while NU only needed to get to the 40 yard line. Every loss featured a critical short miss, and on Saturday night OU even had to overcome another short missed kick. OU badly needs a real option for kicking FGs 30 yards and longer. This problem cannot be allowed to continue into year 3.

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Texas Tech Game Non Recap

OU blitzed another team at home, and it provides absolutely no more data on how OU will play at Baylor and at Stillwater.

OU is still struggling on defense to stop the inside running game of spread teams from the shotgun. Both Baylor and Oklahoma State have dangerous running backs and dangerous passing games if OU decides to blitz too much. So OU is in danger of giving up 28+ in both games, but could in theory score 35+ points if their offense plays up to their potential.

No more real analysis needed.

So let's move to the real topic of this season in the Big 12 South.

How bad is UT really?

Beyond setting the new low standard for Mack Brown Texas football teams, what exactly is going on in Austin?

When highly ranked teams start tanking two powerful forces are usually at work;

THE SUCK and THE QUIT

OU last season for instance was mostly infected with a huge case of the THE SUCK at WR (other than Ryan Broyles and he was hurt for 3 games), at QB (Home Game Jones' road performance was awful), at TE (loss of Gresham was crippling) and at OL (helped greatly through injuries, but still the OL at times was awful).

There was only game were OU was completely infected with THE QUIT. The Texas Tech game where once down 10 points early, the Defense just completely quit. And OU even managed to rally from that QUIT game to shutout OSU in the final game.

Now it should really worry UT fans (and they are worried) that UT has huge areas of THE SUCK and there's a full blown infection of the THE QUIT on the team.

UT has THE SUCK at

WR – OU last year at least had Broyles and late in the year Dejuan Miller. UT's got Mike Davis and that's about it.

RB – UT has nothing. Malcolm Brown walks into Austin with as much pressure to star as a true freshman as anyone I can recall in college football

TE- UT has nothing at this position

OL – UT loses two seniors and there's little real optimism with their young players. They do have a great OL class coming in, but you don't want to see those guys starting

QB: Gilbert has played awful. He's throwing INTs left and right. He's not making plays and his accuracy seems very suspect. He's also getting a very high percentage of passes knocked down and deflected passes becoming interceptions.

DT: Randall is playing well, but UT has no one else at DT and has been forced to move DE Okafor inside. In a very disturbing sign, not one of their freshmen DT recruits have been called into action.

LB: UT's backers have been frequently terrible in run support and pass coverage

DB: UT's vaunted secondary is leaking holes left and right. Aaron Williams is probably  thinking about the NFL while Blake Gideon/Christian Scott combo is just not making plays (Baylor game alone their play led to about 3 TDs).

Return Game: UT's fumbling punts and kickoffs at a tremendous rate.

THE QUIT has appeared early for the Horns

UCLA game in the second half the D just quit.

ISU game after another Gilbert INT, the D just quit and gave up a quick rushing TD which ended up being the difference.

KSU game. The D flat out quit in getting rolled by a one dimensional offense.

OSU game. Down by ten with an inept offense, the D quit again. Only a conservative 2nd half by OSU kept the score down.

So a really disturbing case of THE QUIT infection in the only side of the ball that was playing well.

Theory 1:

UT is just having a terrible injury plagued season like OU had in 2009.

Well, UT's OL injuries are starting to add up (UT had 3 freshman/redshirt freshman starting v OSU), UT has not had anything like the injury problems that OU had last year. UT's has known all off-season that Gilbert would start at QB. UT's had all off-season to adjust to the graduation of Jordan Shipley. So UT fans can hold onto this theory, but it doesn't ring true.

Theory 2:

Mack is out of touch in his role as CEO and his assistants have lost the team completely.

Mack is certainly fueling this theory with his post game interviews throwing players and coaches under the bus with some velocity. Greg Davis' inability to get any kind of improvement on offense is certainly concerning, especially the total lack of improvement by Gilbert. Muschamp's inability to limit THE QUIT on defense, and the inability to improve the defense during the season lends heavy credence to this theory on the defensive side (Other than Kenny Vaccaro no one seems to be improving). Does Mack fire his long time OC Greg Davis (this is almost like Bob firing Brent Venables)? Who was really responsible for the botched offensive strategy change this summer that might be the real source of UT's horrible season? Has Muschamp proved he should not be the head coach in waiting? There appear to be massive chemistry issues with the Horn coaching staff.

Theory 3:

UT's efforts in early recruiting are creating too many recruiting evaluation mistakes.

Now the last 3 years Mack has moved to this exclusive February/March blitz to almost complete his recruiting classes right after signing day. The kids are all ranked high by the recruitniks, but there's a massive case of over inflating UT's kids. Now UT is signing a group that everyone wants (Aaron Williams, Reggie Wilson, Jackson Jeffcoat), but UT in grabbing kids who want to be Horns is also grabbing 10 to 15 kids per class that are being ranked high due to their UT verbal, but are not necessarily blue chips kids. Also, are UT's kids highly ranked as juniors but have maxed out athletically and potential wise? UT's Texas only bias is also hurting the Horns. It was a great RB class last year nationally, but UT signed an in state RB who was pretty average on the national scene. It should also worry UT that OU's best freshman include kids from Oklahoma, Missouri, and California. Another worrying sign, UT settled for Miles Onyegbule early while OU focused on Trey Metoyer. Now, Metoyer is looking like the best WR in Texas in the last 3 years, and UT desperately needs playmakers at WR. Now, it's too early to call this theory validated, but the lack of young playmakers at WR, and DT should scare Horn fans. And Mack shows no sign of slowing this trend of early offers to kids who want to be Horns. If this trend is the real problem for the Horns, UT might be looking at 2 or 3 years of bad seasons and even longer to get back to their national level.

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Oregon and Auburn unchanged. TCU with their dominating win over Utah at Utah moves firmly ahead of Boise State in this poll for the rest of the year, there's nothing Boise can do to get ahead of TCU. If TCU or Boise does not make it to a title game I really hope that they get games against great competition like Stanford.

OU not only lost by double digits to a terrible ATM team, but everyone of their quality wins is cratering. FSU - bad, Texas- awful. Cincinnati - awful. Beat Baylor on the road and/or OSU and I'll rerank the over rated Sooners.

South Carolina's win over Bama only last so long. Just a terrible loss to Arkansas at home.

Bama's now lost two close games, but I think they were over ranked anyway. Still you can bet that Saban will want to derail Auburn BCS bid very badly.

I really wanted to stop this poll at 20. The last five teams are complete SWAGs with more negative feelings on why teams deserve to be unranked.

 

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Where to begin discussing the wholesale carnage that was OU's pathetic effort against ATM?

I'm going to break this down to several key areas. Unfortunately it's long that's how angry I am about the game last night.

1. What's gone wrong and what signs were ignored?

The moment Adrian Taylor received his absolutely gruesome ankle injury in the Sun Bowl Bob and Jackie should have been on the phone to every JUCO coach they trust and signed the best DT that they have found on film. The consequences of moving McGee to OG last fall and playing Taylor/McCoy 95% of the time in 2009 have been dire. McGee is a year behind in development and gaining weight, and McFarland is still struggling with the position. I can count at least 6 times a game where Taylor misses a tackle because he's a step slow playing with his gimpy leg. It's a so sad to see.  But it's a massive recruiting miss, and it's impacted our defense all year long. It's the number one reason why the defense is not improving game over game.

Landry doesn't have it. For those saying he's still developing, that was his 19th start last night. The signs were all there last year, but given all the other chaos on offense it was hard to assess whether Landry could improve. QBs given the starting job without internal competition lead to dangerous consequences. Every practice, every scrimmage should have been open in spring to see Landry compete against Drew Allen. Bob's maniac desire to shut down all access to the program is killing the sense of competition that a QB needs to go through a real QB debate with real pressure. Sam's injury has ensured that we are stuck with 4 years of Landry starting at QB. It's too late now. Landry has seniority from game experience which is gold currency with Bob.  Landry's QB game last night was awful. Considering the level of competition (and Landry's level of support at WR) it ranks up there with the all time worst OU QB games of the Bob era.

2. Schematically what's wrong with OU's offense and how it's not fixable as currently designed.

Right now we are a finesse offense using a spread no huddle attack. Have been all year. Spread folks out, get the ball to the WR playmakers, and use a zone running game to compliment the passing attack. That's what we run most of the time.  There are several huge problems with this approach.

• Our QB is unable to execute a passing attack downfield. He's not accurate downfield and is unable to generate the big plays that are there every game. This becomes an even bigger issue when defenses start sitting on the horizontal bubble screen game which is really part of our running game.
• Bob won't let Wilson use the zone read option running game (QB run game) that is implicit and integral to our running scheme. We even run fake zone reads that are actually called plays to the RB, defeating the whole point of an actual zone read option.
• Without the assistance of the QB run game to move the sticks and to create the occasional garbage touchdown in the red zone, this offense has to have an elite QB to create the big passing plays available when the D stacks the line of scrimmage, and ideally an elite TE to create mismatches in the red zone to ensure a high TD ratio.

As big as those problems are, the other structural/fundamental problem is that with this finesse offense, Bob/Wilson in the 4^th qtr often pretend that the offense can morph into a Wisconsin like power running game offense that can salt games away (Bob's also deluding himself that we always have a dominant D that can protect leads no matter what), and that we can morph into this power running team in the red zone. This problems leads to conservative 3 and outs in the 4^th qtr which are amplified by defensive breakdowns blowing established leads. Even with a new QB, we are still going to have these issues without changes in structure, we're stuck in between offensive schemes neither fish or fowl in crunch time.  It's like Bob wants to be the UF Fun and Gun and then switch to being Iowa/Wisconsin.  Our offense suffers from multiple personality disorder.

3. Trends in BV's defense and why the D this year isn't getting better.

For all the criticism of BV's defenses since he become sole DC in 2005, generally speaking his defenses become better over the year. Keeping in mind that we are playing primarily nothing but spread teams, this usually occurs due to the one of 3 things

• Dominant MLB
• Veteran playmaking LB core (can overcome no dominant MLB)
• Dominant run stopping DTs who also provide a consistent pass rush

This year we have inexperienced underclassman at DT (McGee might be a star next year, maybe), and a crippled version of an all conference DT.  At MLB, we have a struggling Tom Wort (his injury season last year was just a killer). That combo has killed our ability to stop spread teams running the ball which is giving offenses too many 3^rd and shorts. With limited interior pass rush and Beal neutralized by double teams, then on 3^rd and long teams are getting too much time to complete passes.  Add in a horrible senior year by Quinton Carter in coverage and it's the worst BV defense with no hope of improvement.

What do we have in 2011?

Right now, no dominant DTs, and no dominant MLBs.  CB and OLB/SS are the only possible returning strengths of this team. It's not going to be a great defense.

4. Odds on what should change (but likely won't)

I.      Landry going through a real QB competition in an open practice environment.  0% Unless Landry has some horrible injury in August, he's our opening game starter for the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Bob is not wired to pull the hook on a QB. And the safety bubble of Norman provides the ever hopeful belief that Landry can improve.

II.    Wilson is replaced as OC.  0% Bob has not fired a single coach in his tenure at OU. Wilson is not likely to get a head coaching position. In reality, after the ATM debacle Bob should pull Wilson's play calling duties. The major problem with Wilson is that he has no lateral job movement. OC at OU is as high an OC job as he is going to get. So he has to get a head job to move on.

III.  BV is replaced as DC. 50%. There's a decent possibility that Martinez could be named co DC after a successful first year integrating into the OU staff.

IV.   A coach is retired/fired to make room for a special teams coach.  0%  OU so badly needs someone to fix this field goal kicking mess that is continually costing us games. One person responsible for it.

V.     Patton replaced as OL coach. 50%  Most folks will completely over react to our red zone shortcomings and place the blame on Patton, when those plays should never have been called in the first place.  Patton has managed to piece together a reasonably effective OL this year and has a great group redshirting and seems to have found an effective new OL recruiting strategy using OU's summer camps.  But Patton could leave for the same job somewhere else, he has lateral job movement.

VI.   Bob cuts the ships of 3 or 4 kickers and gets a new kicker into the program. 0% This is the kind of cut throat decision Saban or Meyer would make that Bob just won't do. But it so badly needs to happen.

VII. OU signs a stud Juco DT. 33%  OU could pull this off, but with no home games after next week and no JUCO DT targeted/offered, OU is left trying to bring someone in for December visits and quickly verbal to enroll in January if possible. OU should have visits from their top 3 guys scheduled. We're late to the party and only getting later.

5. Massive diatribe over our red zone play calling in the 4^th qtr.

In 25 years of watching college football, the two goal line series by OU late in the 4^th qtr have to rank as the worst play calling series that I have ever seen. OU already had demonstrated an inability to just pound the ball in the endzone throughout the game. So from a technical standpoint, it's flawed play calling.However, over riding everything at that point in the game was time management. We needed to score twice, potentially 3 times depending upon 2 point conversions, and we're wasting minutes trying to run the ball into the end zone against a defensive front we have not moved all game.

There's only one possible justification for this insane (despite all evidence to the contrary, trying the same thing over and over expecting the conclusion to be different is the very definition of insanity)play calling. After 19 starts, our coaching staff (Bob included) do not trust your QB to throw the ball in the red zone. If that is really true, then you need to bench your QB and find someone else.

There's only two possible responses that can be drawn from watching those two series as a fan.

Bob must fire Wilson as play caller because he is clinically insane when it comes to play calling and clock management

Use the Texas Tech home game as a chance to give some reps with the first team offense to Drew Allen/Blake Bell so that they could be a more viable option for the Baylor game when Landry's struggles inevitably surface.

 

 

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Oregon/Auburn stay 1-2. TCU's win over Baylor gives them the edge over Boise, and Utah gets their chance to jump Boise with a win over TCU.

Boise's resume continues to slide. If any conference opponent would give Boise a game, then you might be able to rationalize putting them in the title game. As it stands, Boise is basically playing a 2 game OOC schedule. And that resume should NEVER get a team into a title game. way OU for instance if they run the table will have played 5 ranked teams. Boise may have played 1. Do I think Boise is better than OU, probably. But you have to earn your way into a title game through a full season resume, not win two games in September and cruise through October and November while everyone else is playing 3 to 4 meaningful games.

Best one loss team? Wisconsin, close road loss at Michigan State. Dominated Ohio State and beat Iowa at Iowa. Bama despite all the media love needs to prove that they are the best one loss team.

Classic ranking dilemma between OU, Missouri, and Nebraska. Nebraska has the best win, but also the worst loss. OU and Missouri both have good wins, and road losses (with OU having the best loss, but the weakest win). I'm going with NU first, Missouri next, then OU. If OU wins out, then OU and NU will get to settle this debate in Dallas.  But OU has to beat ranked teams in Aggie State and Baylor (yes Baylor)

Iowa is the best 2 loss team in the country.

 

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